Three major Canadian banks presented cautiously optimistic views on the economy, in stark contrast to the anxiety and frustration felt by numerous small businesses amid escalating trade tensions with the United States.
Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results on Thursday, showcasing their substantial assets totaling up to $6 trillion. With extensive portfolios covering mortgages, loans, and various debt products, these banking giants have a broad reach across Canada and the U.S., allowing them to closely monitor the impacts of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy, citing improvements in employment and GDP in the second quarter. He expressed a cautious optimism for continued economic expansion despite ongoing trade uncertainties between Canada and the U.S.
TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun pointed to an emerging “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense projects. Chun emphasized that trade tensions have not hindered investment opportunities in Canada, with significant government projects planned through 2035 and beyond.
CIBC CEO Harry Culham conveyed measured confidence in the latter half of 2026, noting the evolving trade environment and the bank’s focus on monitoring labor market indicators for potential weaknesses.
A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council warned of over 100,000 potential job losses if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) was terminated. BMO Capital Markets predicted a half percentage point reduction in Canadian growth due to the latest U.S. tariffs, primarily impacting business confidence and investment.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira commended Canada’s resilient economy and praised government investment plans and aid measures for businesses affected by tariffs. He highlighted projects like energy infrastructure and the icebreaker ship contract as positive steps forward for the country.
Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank’s CEOs separately deemed the Canada-U.S. trade war as manageable, echoing sentiments of cautious optimism in the face of escalating trade tensions.
Shares of major Canadian banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to trade near record highs, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF surging nearly 50% over the past year.