As the announcement of a new agreement regarding Churchill Falls approached, speculation arose about the potential impact of a new leadership in Quebec this fall. However, a political analyst suggests that the involvement of Ottawa will significantly complicate any attempts to dismantle the deal.
“This represents a substantial investment in renewable energy,” remarked Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University.
“The participation of the federal government as an investor, rather than merely a mediator, indicates that this situation goes beyond a simple negotiation between Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec.”
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Without the full details, N.L.’s opposition, Innu Grand Chief not entirely sold on new Churchill agreement
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N.L., Quebec announce new Churchill Falls agreement worth billions — with help from Ottawa
Presently, the Parti Québécois (PQ) is at the forefront in opinion polls. Historically, the party has expressed opposition to the Churchill Falls agreement, but now that it has been finalized, their stance seems to have shifted.
During the announcement on Monday, journalists asked Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette if the agreement would remain intact should the PQ secure victory in the upcoming election. She acknowledged the party’s interest in potentially “tearing up” the agreement.
In response, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon took to X to label Fréchette’s remark as “simply a falsehood” and accused her of hastily negotiating the deal for electoral gain.
Plamondon further stated that if the agreement proves advantageous for Quebec, the PQ would be inclined to uphold it.
Despite concerns about possible leadership changes in Quebec, political analysts maintain that the new federally supported Churchill Falls energy agreement is too vital to abandon. Furthermore, as trade discussions escalate, it enhances the prospects for Canada and both provinces. The CBC’s Leila Beaudoin reports.
Turnbull expressed confidence that even if the PQ sought to dismantle the agreement, the federal government would likely intervene to prevent that outcome.
“The notion that this is genuinely in political peril is something I don’t believe. Additionally, I don’t think that risk should be exaggerated. The scenario would be different if the federal government were indifferent, but that’s clearly not the case,” she stated.
‘Impossible to secure a better deal’
Joël-Denis Bellavance, a journalist with La Presse who covers Churchill Falls, noted that many specialists concur that this agreement serves Quebec’s best interests.
“This arrangement is advantageous for all parties, including Quebec. It’s impossible to achieve a better deal than the one currently proposed,” he remarked.
La Presse journalist Joël-Denis Bellavance asserts that if the Parti Québécois is elected in the fall, they will be compelled to endorse the new Churchill Falls agreement. (CBC)
He further added that there is a recognition in Quebec that this is a “must-sign deal.”
“Churchill Falls accounts for roughly 15 percent of Quebec’s total electricity production. Therefore, it is a crucial component that cannot be disregarded without significant repercussions,” he explained.
Bellavance also indicated that the agreement aligns with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pledge to establish Canada as an energy superpower. Moreover, he emphasized that the looming threat of additional U.S. tariffs arriving Wednesday makes this substantial energy agreement even more crucial.
“He is acutely aware that Quebec and Newfoundland can supply clean energy to several U.S. states. This could be a point of discussion during negotiations with President Trump,” he noted.
Nevertheless, he remarked that the federal government’s involvement might not sway the next Quebec administration since Hydro-Québec will ultimately have the final say.
“[Hydro-Québec] will be persuading the Parti Québécois that there’s no alternative to this deal, lest they risk the expense of constructing new dams in Quebec, which would likely be three times more costly,” he asserted.
“I would contend that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the Parti Québécois will have no option but to endorse what has been agreed upon.”