Keir Starmer has returned from his trip to the Far East, where he successfully negotiated important concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, Downing Street is relieved that the visit to Beijing went smoothly. However, the focus now shifts to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
Scheduled for February 26, the by-election in the historically safe Labour constituency of Gorton and Denton will determine the successor to Andrew Gwynne following his resignation. The recent decision by the Labour governing body to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster is viewed as a risky move by some MPs, who are concerned it could backfire.
There are mixed sentiments among MPs regarding the outcome of the by-election. While some are pessimistic about Labour’s chances, others believe victory is possible. Labour MP Karl Turner expressed confidence, stating that there is a genuine opportunity to win. However, the pressure on Keir Starmer will be immense if the seat is lost.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the by-election, noting the potential influence of four key players: Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party. He emphasized the shift in voter dynamics, particularly in constituencies with significant Muslim populations, making the by-election a captivating contest.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, characterized the by-election as a three-way race between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, with Nigel Farage’s Reform party playing a significant role. Tactical voting is expected to be crucial in determining the outcome, with voters grappling with the decision of which party to support to counter Reform’s influence.
Overall, the by-election presents a challenging scenario where strategic voting and party dynamics will play a pivotal role in shaping the final results.