Despite a chilly weekend with temperatures dropping below average across the UK, winter is not yet fully taking hold. Recent weather maps indicate a warm surge from the Iberian jet stream could soon sweep over Britain.
According to WXCharts, parts of southern England could see temperatures reach around 17C as early as 6 am on November 1. Areas like London, Surrey, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, and the Isle of Wight may experience highs near 16-17C. Additionally, regions including Kent, Wiltshire, Essex, Suffolk, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, and Lincolnshire could also expect maximum temperatures around 15C.
UK forecaster Netweather predicts that the jet stream will be active by 9 am on November 1, moving across Europe, including France, Spain, and Portugal. The jet stream, a swift air current high in the atmosphere, typically moves from west to east across the Atlantic towards Europe, impacting the UK’s weather patterns.
Although the jet stream is a natural occurrence not directly caused by climate change, experts suggest that a warming planet is intensifying Iberian jet streams, leading to more extreme weather events like heatwaves and wildfires across Europe.
The Met Office’s extended forecast for November 1 to November 10 anticipates above-average temperatures, especially initially, with fewer overnight frosts or fogs than usual. However, the weather agency warns of changeable and unsettled conditions at the start of November due to prevailing low pressure across much of the UK.
The Met Office further states that this period may bring showers or prolonged spells of rain, with western regions likely to experience the heaviest rainfall. Nonetheless, there could be occasional drier or clearer intervals, particularly in eastern areas.
The warmest November on record in the UK occurred in 2015, when Trawsgoed, Wales recorded a scorching 22.3C, a milestone also associated with the jet stream. Prior to that, the record was set at 21.7C in Prestatyn, Wales in 1946.